Thursday, 8 November 2012

Shyam advisory free trial

An Obama win favors a continuation of the current easy money policy. The Obama win did remove uncertainty about the future of Fed policy.  The Fed’s increased emphasis on employment is here to stay. The Gold Markets reward this certainty by bidding up Gold, selling off the US Dollar versus all major currencies. Comex gold and silver shot up higher on Expectations of an Obama win & also as the market recovered from the rather hard slide that it took on Friday when Gold markets priced in a Romney win. Gold & Silver will retain bullishness till the easy monetary policy remains in force as Inflation rises are a certain aftereffect of this kind of a policy action. The Fed’s easy-money policy has pushed down the value of the dollar, though, and some worry more dollar weakness may be in store, particularly if investors see signs of rising Inflation. Gold remains a natural hedge option in a scenario where Inflation rises sharply. The Fed said Oct. 24 it will maintain $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage debt and probably hold interest rates near zero until mid-2015. The Fed’s increased emphasis on employment is here to stay. The US Dollar reversed earlier gains versus the Euro after Obama defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney, on speculation Obama’s re-election as President will boost chances of the US continuing monetary stimulus policies that tend to weaken the currency. The US Federal Reserve had unveiled a plan in September 2012, to buy $40 billion of MBS – Mortgage-backed securities every month in a third round of so-called quantitative easing – QE3, after $2.3 trillion purchases of bonds from December 2008 and June 2011. Any worries that the Federal Reserve is done with stimulus are unfounded and the future still looks bright for more easing programs. Fed may soon introduce a new plan of Treasury purchases when Operation Twist winds down into year-end. A Chinese National Party Congress should be favorable to industrial metals, crude oil and gold due to prospects for new stimulus policies. Also if Greece passes austerity measures and receives further financial assistance, “this should make markets feel better and help commodities to move higher. We should start seeing more demand for gold as a result of purchasing-power hedging and due to the low opportunity cost to hold it, as real interest rates are likely to decline further. It could be argued that the Fed would not mind higher inflation, and that if there was a policy error to be made, it would be on the side of inflation. All above mentioned factors are highly Gold supportive. Lower interest rates historically have helped gold prices and higher rates have been gold-negative.

0 comments:

Post a Comment